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Add RESEARCH.md to ground design in empirical findings - #14

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May 25, 2026
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@dmccoystephenson dmccoystephenson commented May 25, 2026 •

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Summary

  • Adds RESEARCH.md — a curated record of empirical findings on autonomous software development agents, with citations, confidence levels, and the specific implication of each finding for create-dev-loop and the dev-loop skills it generates.
  • Updates CLAUDE.md with a new "Grounding work in research" section requiring future PRs to cite findings from RESEARCH.md (or explicitly note absence of evidence) when proposing template or phase changes. Also adds RESEARCH.md to the documentation sources-of-truth table.
  • Updates README.md with a brief "Research basis" section pointing outside readers to RESEARCH.md.

The goal is to anchor design decisions in published research and reproducible benchmarks rather than intuition or vendor marketing.

What's in RESEARCH.md

Eight findings drawn from peer-reviewed and benchmark literature (2023–2026), covering:

  1. Self-critique reliability (Huang ICLR 2024, Kamoi TACL 2024, self-preference bias 2026)
  2. Agent-authored PR failure modes (33k-PR study; code-review-agent empirical reality study)
  3. SWE-bench contamination and the localization bottleneck (SWE-Bench Pro; Dissecting the Leaderboards)
  4. Exponential decay in long-horizon agent success and context rot (METR; Ord half-life; Chroma)
  5. Reflection-iteration plateau (Self-Refine, Reflexion)
  6. PR-size effects for agents vs. humans (Kudrjavets MSR 2022; agent-PR study)
  7. LLM issue triage accuracy
  8. Prompt/model drift (Chen et al.; non-determinism quantification)

Each finding includes a citation, confidence level (high/medium/low), and a specific implication for one or more phases of the dev-loop. The doc also calls out which existing design choices are already aligned with the evidence (e.g., the 0–3 issue batch ceiling, the retrofit checklist) and where the empirical record is thin (autonomous-merge defect rates, optimal phase decomposition).

A "how to add a new finding" template is included so future research can be incorporated consistently.

Test plan

  • All links in RESEARCH.md resolve to valid arXiv/venue/blog URLs
  • CLAUDE.md sources-of-truth table renders correctly and the new section is clearly worded
  • README.md "Research basis" link to RESEARCH.md resolves on GitHub
  • The doc reads as a usable guide, not a one-off literature dump

🤖 Generated with Claude Code


drafted by Claude on behalf of Daniel Stephenson

Records the published research and benchmark results that inform the
current design of create-dev-loop and the dev-loop skills it generates.
CLAUDE.md now requires citing RESEARCH.md (or explicitly noting the
absence of evidence) when proposing template or phase changes, so design
decisions are anchored in the literature rather than intuition.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
@dmccoystephenson
dmccoystephenson merged commit bf81895 into main May 25, 2026
@dmccoystephenson
dmccoystephenson deleted the feature/add-research-md branch August 3, 2026 05:01
dmccoystephenson added a commit that referenced this pull request Aug 3, 2026
Records the published research and benchmark results that inform the
current design of create-dev-loop and the dev-loop skills it generates.
CLAUDE.md now requires citing RESEARCH.md (or explicitly noting the
absence of evidence) when proposing template or phase changes, so design
decisions are anchored in the literature rather than intuition.

Co-authored-by: BuildTools <unconfigured@null.spigotmc.org>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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