dat-accretion: Strategy, BitMine and SharpLink capital actions measured in net coins per share

Live: https://rahilbhavan.github.io/dat-accretion/

This project measures every capital action by Strategy (BTC), BitMine (ETH) and SharpLink (ETH) since 2026-06-01 on one ruler: Strategy's own net coins per share definition, applied to all three firms. Python parsers read SEC 8-K and 10-Q filings into a ledger where each row links to its filing. A numpy engine gives each action's per-share effect at disclosed prices and the price at which that effect changes sign. The output is a static page, a one-page memo, and the CSVs behind them.

Results

Figures are for the data in the repository at this commit: filings dated 2026-06-01 to 2026-10-19 and weeks ending through 2026-10-18.

• 104 filing-linked actions (issuance, retirements, buybacks, coin purchases and carry), each with an sec.gov filing_url: Strategy 53, BitMine 45, SharpLink 6. By type: 39 share issuances, preferred retirements and buybacks; 36 coin purchases and sales; 29 carry rows (preferred dividends, convertible interest and inferred SharpLink staking). Source: data/actions.csv.
• Break-even, week ending 2026-10-18. At net mNAV 1.076, Strategy's STRC rotation adds net sats per share while STRC trades below $107.58; STRC closed at $97.72. At net mNAV 0.923, BitMine's BMNP rotation adds net ETH per share while BMNP trades above $92.33; BMNP closed at $96.66. Source: docs/memo.md.
• Weekly counts. STRC closed below its break-even in 22 of 22 filed weeks, and BMNP closed below its break-even in 18 of 18. SharpLink's m was below 1 on 4 of 4 filed dates. Source: docs/memo.md.
• SharpLink coverage. SharpLink is measured only on the four dates its filings state ETH holdings (2026-06-16, 2026-06-28, 2026-06-30, 2026-08-03). Nothing is carried forward between them.
• Checks. 199 pytest cases pass offline. On 2026-10-28 the live done check, check.py, passed 21 of 21 checks. One of them fetched the 50 unique filing URLs in data/actions.csv, and all 50 returned HTTP 200.

How it works

1. dat/snapshot_kpi.py saves Strategy's KPI API values each day, because the API keeps no history.
2. dat/parse_mstr.py, dat/parse_bmnr.py and dat/parse_sbet.py read 8-K tables by row label (an unknown label raises) and write data/actions.csv and data/stated.csv. dat/edgar.py fetches filings and caches them in data/raw/.
3. dat/prices.py writes Yahoo and CoinGecko daily closes to data/prices.csv. dat/balances.py rolls 10-Q anchors forward into data/balances.csv and data/weekly.csv.
4. dat/engine.py splits each week's change in net coins per share into price, in-the-money flips, each action, carry and a residual (data/attribution.csv). The break-even price is the liquidation preference × net mNAV.
5. dat/memo.py writes the memo and map. dat/filings.py writes restyled copies of the cited filings. dat/build_site.py writes the page data for site/.

dat/refresh.py runs steps 2 to 5 in order. check.py runs the live checks.

Run it

Prerequisites: Python 3.12 or later, uv, and Node 24 only to rebuild the balance figure. The tests need no network and no credentials.

uv venv && uv pip install -e '.[dev]'
.venv/bin/python -m pytest -q

Observed on 2026-10-28: 199 passed.

Rebuild the memo and the page data from the committed CSVs (offline):

.venv/bin/python -m dat.memo         # docs/memo.md, docs/memo.html, docs/map.svg
.venv/bin/python -m dat.build_site   # site/data.json
node site-src/balance/build.mjs      # site/balance.js

These commands need the network:

.venv/bin/python check.py            # live done check; writes data/check.json, exits 0 only if every check passes
.venv/bin/python -m dat.snapshot_kpi # appends today's Strategy KPI row to data/kpi_snapshots.csv
.venv/bin/python -m dat.refresh      # parses new filings and rebuilds the CSVs, memo and site

The memo PDF is printed from docs/memo.html with headless Chrome. .github/workflows/refresh.yml has the exact command.

GitHub Actions runs four workflows. ci runs pytest on each PR and push to main. snapshot saves the KPI row to the data branch each day and runs check.py. pages deploys the site only when the latest done check passed. refresh is scheduled for Tuesdays and squash-merges its PR only when pytest, check.py and CI pass. As of 2026-10-21 none of its four scheduled runs has merged a refresh. Refreshes so far were started by hand or merged as ordinary PRs.

Repository layout

• dat/: one module per pipeline step, run as python -m dat.<module>.
• data/: the committed CSVs (actions, stated, balances, weekly, prices, attribution, staking).
• docs/: memo, methodology, decisions, build notes and a course.
• site/: the static page, self-hosted fonts and restyled filing copies.
• site-src/: Node source for the balance figure in the mechanism section.
• tests/: pytest suite, offline.
• check.py: the live done check.
• .claude/rules/: the method, data and framing rules the code follows.
• .github/workflows/: ci, snapshot, pages and refresh.
• data branch: daily Strategy KPI snapshots and check.json, appended by the snapshot workflow.

Documentation

• docs/overview.md: what the project does and how the pieces fit. Start here.
• docs/methodology.md: definitions, formulas and labeled estimates.
• docs/memo.md: the one-page memo with the break-even table (PDF).
• docs/decisions.md: every decision, why, and the alternative it rules out.
• docs/how-it-was-made.md: the build, step by step.
• docs/build-notes.md: problems hit while building and what they did to the numbers.
• docs/reader-test.md: earlier reader results and the human-test protocol.
• docs/course/: a 24-lesson course that teaches the project from scratch, with quizzes.
• docs/README.md: index of every file in docs/.

Sources

• SEC EDGAR: Strategy 8-Ks and Q2 10-Q (CIK 1050446), BitMine 8-K releases and 10-Q (CIK 1829311), SharpLink 8-Ks and Q2 10-Q (CIK 1981535). Filings dated 2026-06-01 to 2026-10-19. Requests send an identifying User-Agent and stay under EDGAR's rate limit.
• Strategy's KPI API (api.strategy.com/btc/bitcoinKpis): current value only, saved daily to the data branch.
• Yahoo Finance daily closes for MSTR, STRC, STRK, STRF, STRD, BMNR, BMNP and SBET, 2026-05-25 to 2026-10-13. CoinGecko BTC and ETH daily closes.
• strategicethreserve.xyz: was the independent check of BitMine's and SharpLink's ETH holdings. Its page said on 2026-10-25 that it is winding down and no longer lists holdings, so check.py labels the check RETIRED and passes; the 8-Ks are the only source for ETH holdings after its last snapshot (2026-08-23).

Every number traces to a filing through filing_url. The CSVs in data/ are committed. Raw filings are cached in data/raw/ (gitignored) and can be fetched again from EDGAR.

Scope and limits

• Independent research. Not affiliated with Strategy, BitMine or SharpLink.
• The project states per-share effects and break-even prices. It makes no judgment on any decision and gives no forecast or investment view.
• Figures change when a new refresh merges. PR #41 (weekly refresh, 2026-10-20) is open and not merged.
• Some values are labeled estimates. BitMine's share count S is estimated between filings and carries an upward bias of up to 0.55% of S by 2026-10-11. BitMine buy_coin dollar values are coins × the week's ETH close.
• BitMine's releases do not separate staking rewards from purchases. SharpLink's staking is inferred from its holdings changes.
• Residuals are tested only for Strategy from 2026-08-02. Before that date, and for BitMine and SharpLink, they are reported and not tested.

License

MIT for this project's code and analysis. Third-party filings and price data belong to their owners. site-src/anatomy-kit/ carries its own MIT license.

Part of Rahil Bhavan's projects.