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fix(observability): seven-day ACME leaves are not expiring certificates (#136) - #718
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…es (#136) Enabling the ntfy probe (#715) paged `urgent` within ten minutes: "ntfy's certificate has 7 days left", on a leaf Caddy had just issued. Every sensitive-tier leaf is seven days from step-ca (ADR-0037), so it is always inside TlsCertificateExpiryImminent's 7-day threshold and the 30-day one. It would have repeated every 4h indefinitely. The comment in #712 that said the 30-day warning "should never fire here" was wrong. - The ntfy target gains `renewal: acme`. Both existing expiry rules select renewal!="acme", which is a no-op for every target that lacks the label. - New TlsAcmeRenewalStalled, critical, fires when an ACME leaf has under 36h left for 30m. Caddy renews at a third of the lifetime, about 56h, so this means about 20h of failed renewals. Critical so it reaches urgent's ntfy.sh copy: when that leaf lapses the in-house path goes too. - promtool cases: a healthy leaf at five days fires nothing; the same leaf at 30h fires only the new rule. - Rule counts in the docs move from 102 to 103. Refs #136 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Sep 29, 2026
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What changed
renewal: acmeon the ntfy probe target.TlsCertificateExpiringSoon(30 days) andTlsCertificateExpiryImminent(7 days) now selectrenewal!="acme". Targets without the label are unaffected.TlsAcmeRenewalStalled, critical. It fires when an ACME leaf has under 36 hours left for 30 minutes.blackbox.rules.yamlrow mentions the exception.Why
Enabling the ntfy probe in Gerrrt/HomeLab#715 paged
urgentwithin ten minutes: "🔴 ntfy's certificate has 7 days left", on a leaf Caddy had just issued. Every sensitive-tier leaf comes from step-ca with a seven-day lifetime (ADR-0037), so it is always inside both estate thresholds. The page would have repeated every 4 hours for good.Caddy renews a seven-day leaf at about a third of its lifetime, around 56 hours left. A healthy leaf therefore never reads below about 2.3 days, and under 36 hours means roughly 20 hours of failed renewals. The rule is critical because the first leaf it watches is ntfy's own. If that lapses, the in-house alert path goes with it, and only
urgent's ntfy.sh copy still reaches a phone.Blast radius
prometheus: one rule added and two narrowed. Every existing target lacks
renewal, sorenewal!="acme"matches them exactly as before.Deploy:
git pull --ff-only && make reloadon prometheus. The target label is hot-reloaded byfile_sd.No change to network segmentation or firewall rules
No new port published to a VLAN that could not already reach the service
No credential added outside
secrets/*.sops.yamlVerification
Rules:
make validatepasses: promtool check and test on all 11 rule files, plus the new cases.Docs:
check_docs.pyagrees (103 Prometheus + 18 Loki rules).make validatepassesDeployed: needs the pull and reload on prometheus
Docs updated
Refs #136
🤖 Generated with Claude Code