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the held row mixes two populations, it does not simply omit a fee - #3149

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Flotapponnier merged 1 commit into
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fix/pump-hold-wording
Oct 22, 2026
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Flotapponnier merged 1 commit into
devfrom
fix/pump-hold-wording

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The hold was right, the reason given for it was not.

The pump.fun EVM rows were described as measuring the destination swap with the bridge's take left out, understating the loss by a fixed 95 bps at $10 and 545 bps at $1.

Checking the 63 swaps behind pump-fun-bnb:

touch the bridge router 40 of 63
sent by pump's relayer 10 of 63
exactly round trade size 6 of 63

The rest are wallets trading their own funds on the chain: no Solana deposit, no take, and their published loss was correct. Four sampled by hand go to 0xccc88a9d… with no log from the router at all.

So the row carries two populations with different cost bases and the harness cannot yet tell which swap is which. One median over both is not a cost whichever way it leans, which is why the row stays held. But the arithmetic offered earlier applies to a subset whose size is not established, and should not have been stated as the row's true loss.

Spec formula and row note reworded. No behaviour change, no test change: the hold itself is unchanged.

The hold was right, the reason given for it was not.

This row was described as measuring the destination swap with the bridge's
take left out, understating the loss by a fixed 95 bps at $10 and 545 at $1.
Checking the 63 swaps behind it: 40 touch the bridge router at all and only 10
are sent by pump's relayer. The rest are wallets trading their own funds on the
chain, with no Solana deposit and no take, whose published loss was correct.

So the row carries two populations with different cost bases, and the harness
cannot yet tell which swap is which. One median over both is not a cost
whichever way it leans, which is why the row stays held, but the arithmetic
offered earlier applies to a subset whose size is not established and should
not have been stated as the row's true loss.

Spec formula and row note reworded to say that. No behaviour change.
@Flotapponnier
Flotapponnier merged commit cea9660 into dev Oct 22, 2026
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